Print Friendly and PDF

Supply Curbs, Uncertain Demand
to Keep Oil Rangebound
Above $40: Reuters Poll

Oil prices will see little change this year and a modest uptick in 2021 as output cuts take effect, with the demand picture clouded in uncertainty due to the coronavirus pandemic, a Reuters poll showed.

The survey of 43 analysts and economists forecast benchmark Brent crude to average $42.75 a barrel in 2020, up from July's $41.50 consensus and compared with an average price of $42.60 so far this year. Brent is expected to average $50.45 in 2021. The 2020 U.S. crude price outlook rose to $38.82 per barrel from July's $37.51.

Global demand, meanwhile, was seen contracting more steeply this year, by between 8-10 million bpd versus July's 7.2-8.5 million bpd consensus.

"The market's looking for a catalyst to break out of its recent range," said Harry Tchilinguirian, head of commodity research, BNP Paribas.

"On the bearish side, this could be a degradation of OPEC+ discipline as prices begin to rise, or more severe economic setback ... On the bullish side, a positive outcome in phase III COVID-19 vaccine trials that will re-shape expectations around the path of a global economic recovery."

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, or 'OPEC+', have urged nations producing oil above agreed quotas to deepen cuts in August and September. Its current policy calls for a 7.7 million barrels per day (bpd) cut.

"OPEC+ will likely support a floor at $40, but plateauing demand recovery and concerns of a COVID-19 second wave will make price gains difficult," Jefferies analyst Jason Gammel said. "Declining U.S. production could be supportive into year-end."

The International Energy Agency this month cut its 2020 demand forecast by 140,000 bpd to 91.9 million bpd and, with the pandemic throttling air travel, predicted consumption in 2021 will be slightly lower than it was in 2019.

"Air traffic is likely to suffer for longer," said Norbert Ruecker of Julius Baer.


The Resource Investor
Copyright 2020-22 | All Rights Reserved
Reproduction in whole or part is strictly prohibited
without prior written permission
NOTE: The Resource Investor does not itself endorse or guarantee
the accuracy or reliability of information, statements or opinions
expressed by any individuals or organizations posted on this site
PLEASE READ DISCLAIMER


Web Site Designed & Maintained by
Gemini Communications

This website is a publication of the
Bull & Bear Media Group, Inc.
Editor@TheBullandBear.com